Sino Strategies: China's Influence & its Implications for the U.S.

Summary

• Coming out of COP29, China will have emphasized transparency, climate adaptation, and global collaboration, including initiatives to support developing countries with early warning systems and technology sharing.
• Stricter Chinese environmental regulations could raise costs for U.S. imports, while American climate tech businesses might benefit from China’s increased international engagement.

Introduction

COP29 is in full swing throughout the second half of November 2024, and representatives from countries around the world have convened in Baku, Azerbaijan to accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis. Among the many participating nations, China and the U.S. are central in the strategy to solve the climate crisis. Besides boasting the largest economies in the world, being centers of critical energy technology innovation, and possessing important global political influence, cities in China and the United States also emit the most heat-trapping gas responsible for climate change — with Shanghai contributing the most of any city. 

China’s strategy to address the challenge of climate change has largely focused around adapting to new environments and investing in clean energy technology. Coming out of COP29, this strategy is likely to remain principally unchanged, but against the backdrop of an unusually depressed economy and Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Beijing may have to amend its approach. 

China’s Evolving Climate Strategy 

During the first few days of the Conference, Beijing has signaled willingness to be more transparent in its climate change efforts. Xi Jinping’s special representative Ding Xuexiang, also China’s vice premier, called for strengthening early warning systems for all and enhancing climate adaptation capacity. Indeed, in addition to the announcement of the release of China’s Action Plan on Early Warning for Climate Change Adaptation (2025–2027), Ding highlighted China’s willingness to work with all countries to improve and standardize risk assessment capabilities and share technologies. 

Ding also promoted the establishment of a “South-South cooperation flagship project for early warning in response to climate change, supporting other developing countries through the provision of meteorological observation equipment, early warning systems, and capacity-building training.” 

China’s desire to work more closely with other nations is not new. Given the economic challenges the People’s Republic is facing, it seems to be in the nation’s best interest to work more closely with foreign partners where possible. 

Implications for the U.S.

1. U.S. Policy Implications

Given the personal relationship that exists between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, as well as Trump’s nomination of cabinet members who have taken a particularly hawkish stance on China, the U.S. may seek a more aggressive and strict policy toward China on all fronts and when it comes to climate risks in particular.

2. U.S. Business Implications

American businesses will likely benefit from more Chinese international engagement in general and on climate change in particular. Climate tech companies will especially benefit from Beijing’s evolving globally-oriented strategy.  

3. U.S. Consumer Implications

China’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lead to stricter environmental regulations and increased global production costs. This could affect the availability and pricing of goods imported into the U.S., particularly in sectors like electronics and textiles.

Photo Credit: United Nations Department of Global Communications