Sino Strategies: China's Influence & its Implications for the U.S.

Summary

• Qin Gang, China’s former foreign minister, has resurfaced after his disappearance in July 2023. He has been reassigned to a low-level position at a state-owned publishing house, distancing him from his previous close ties to Xi Jinping.
• Qin’s fall is part of President Xi Jinping’s broader political purge aimed at consolidating power and eliminating corruption throughout the Chinese government.
• Xi’s increasing political dominance poses challenges for U.S. policymakers and businesses, potentially complicating international collaboration and raising risks for companies operating in or partnering with China, as the country moves toward greater autocracy.

Qin Gang’s Return

After a years-long disappearance, Qin Gang, China’s former foreign minister, has been found. According to two former U.S. officials, Qin has apparently been assigned to a low-level job with World Affairs Press, a state-owned publishing house affiliated with the Foreign Ministry. It’s a far cry from his once high-flying position close to President Xi Jinping, but it’s also a far cry from death, as some individuals previously claimed was the fate of the former foreign minister.  

Xi Jinping’s Political Purging

Qin Gang’s disappearance in July 2023 was part of President Xi Jinping’s broader political strategy to purge corruption within the Chinese Communist Party and to consolidate political power around himself. Xi’s crackdown is reminiscent of Mao Zedong’s “continuous revolution,” and it seems that Xi is attempting to reshape China in his image in the same way as Mao. The crackdown’s scope spans all areas of government, from China’s economic leadership with the sidelining of Premier Li Keqiang to the PRC’s military and space force. 

As Foreign Minister, Qin Gang was a loyal supporter of the CCP and of Xi Jinping in particular. Indeed, Qin was a so-called “Wolf Warrior diplomat,” one of a group of outspoken Chinese diplomats not shy of publicly rebuking the U.S. and staunchly defending China. His dismissal and disappearance underscore how tenuous the situation is for senior Chinese officials, as even Xi’s most loyal allies have to watch their backs. 

Implications for the U.S.

1. U.S. Policy Implications

As Xi Jinping continues to consolidate power and purge political dissent, it will become increasingly difficult for the U.S. to collaborate with China on mutually beneficial issues such as nuclear non-proliferation. U.S. policymakers will be increasingly encouraged by Chinese officials to work from what Xi Jinping desires. As this continues and if progress on global issues is the objective, U.S. policymakers may have to consider working indirectly with China through international, multilateral organizations such as the United Nations. 

2. U.S. Business Implications

Autocracies have been found to hinder the effectiveness of economies, as they usually involve stagnation, policy instability, brain drain, and violence. Furthermore, businesses face new risks, as autocrats refashion markets to reinforce their political dominance, and common consequences include retaliatory and punitive applications of taxation and discriminatory access to government contracts and public services. Several Chinese companies – such as Jack Ma’s Alibaba – have already faced political consequences like these, and as Xi continues to consolidate power, the economic reality in China will continue to evolve in the direction of an autocracy. U.S. businesses may have to consider and plan for the disruption to their supply chains of partnering with Chinese manufacturing companies and may have to reconsider operating in China altogether. 

Photo credit: REUTERS/Thomas Peter/Pool/File Photo