Sino Strategies: China's Influence & its Implications for the U.S.

Throughout the end of April, China’s Guangdong province has been threatened and battered by torrential rain and dangerous flooding, forcing local government officials to enact emergency response plans which have so far included evacuating tens of thousands of residents from the region. The downpour has been characterized as reaching “once-in-a-century” levels for the region, albeit much earlier than anticipated by weather forecasters. The intensity and unexpected timing of the floods cast yet another spotlight on climate change, as well as the roles that the PRC has played in exacerbating and will play in mitigating climate change, respectively. 

Extreme Weather throughout China

China’s Southeastern Guangdong province is prone to heavy flooding and rainfall, having experienced its most severe downpour in over six decades in 2022. The recent storm, however, occurred much sooner and has been far more intense than anticipated. It also poses a significant threat to the region’s stability and security, as silkworm farms and other agricultural industries which drive the province’s economy were battered by the storms. 

The flooding comes at a time of increased climate instability for China as a whole – and the Guangdong province and neighboring regions in particular. In addition to the rainfall, a tornado struck Guangdong’s capital city of Guangzhou, killing five and injuring dozens. Meanwhile, Yunnan province is facing its worst drought in 60 years, adversely affecting the province’s leading production of hydropower, grain, and aluminum. 

Beijing’s Climate Change Strategy

To reduce the risk and destructive power of such catastrophic weather events, Beijing has crafted a climate strategy that revolves around two key pillars: adaptation and clean energy investment. 

The PRC prioritizes adaptation to climate change specifically over mitigation of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, Beijing does not see a future in which the country is capable of staying within the 1.5 degree C Paris agreement threshold, and therefore the CCP seems to believe that adapting to a new climate future is the best course of action. China’s adaptation strategy involves massive infrastructure projects, including development of  protection mechanisms for coastal wetlands, construction of seawalls, and development of so-called “sponge cities” to improve water transfer nationally, among other ecological investment projects. 

Beijing has also been a leader of investment in clean energy technologies of late and envisions itself as the global leader in this sector. China has made particularly heavy investments in the electric vehicle and renewable energy storage spaces, having recently attracted a visit from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. By continuing to lead in the development of clean energy technologies, China aims to gain financial and geopolitical benefits while simultaneously addressing climate change and enhancing its global image.

Overall, climate change will likely be framed more centrally as an issue of national security for the PRC in the near future, with China seeking to establish climate change resilience at home and support climate change mitigation efforts abroad. 

Implications for the U.S.

1. U.S. Policy Implications

Climate change is one area the U.S. and China have both agreed to work on together, and both nations have highlighted that the problem requires collaboration on a global level if it can be solved. Nevertheless, China’s centralized decision-making, led by President Xi Jinping, poses challenges to effective implementation of climate change efforts worldwide. Effective implementation within China requires vibrant civil society engagement and local decision-making flexibility, which may be hindered by centralized governance. The U.S., especially policymakers, could seek to encourage Beijing to allow greater systemic flexibility and empower local actors across the country. 

2. U.S. Business Implications

For American businesses, Chinese investment in clean energy technology, especially electric vehicles, could signal the onset of an international price war. Indeed, EV production capacity in China continues to expand rapidly despite being much larger than domestic demand, suggesting that manufacturers may export vehicles abroad at significant discounts. American OEMs, clean energy players, and other advanced industry companies may need to adapt their pricing strategies and modify their market presence to hedge against these risks. 

3. U.S. Consumer Implications

Climate change is a global challenge that impacts all people on Earth. Hence, it is in all people’s best interests that China play a leading role in combating climate change globally, starting with the challenges the PRC is facing at home.