Sino Strategies: China's Influence & its Implications for the U.S.

Chinese engagement in Africa has increased consistently over the past several decades, especially through infrastructure projects enabled by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In Africa, Beijing typically targets countries that possess economic resources or diplomatic advantages to support its own aspirations. For example, the Congo has historically supplied roughly 60 percent of China’s cobalt needs, with cobalt being an essential mineral for electric vehicles. Additionally, Sino relations with South Africa and Egypt have presented diplomatic advantages for the PRC on the global stage.

However, Beijing’s involvement across the continent has not been without challenges. Growing Chinese demand for donkey hides has seriously strained donkey populations in African countries, leading governments to consider regulating the trade at the expense of Chinese markets. Furthermore, an increasing number of African countries have started to view China’s BRI as a “debt trap.” 

The Future of China-Africa Relations

In spite of recent tensions, engagement between the People’s Republic and the African Continent has not waned. Indeed, China is likely to deepen its investments and economic partnerships across Africa over the next decade. In the past year China’s CMOC Group became the world’s largest producer of cobalt as it ramped up its new Kisanfu mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and it plans to increase output further in 2024. Zambia and China, among other nations, signed an official creditor agreement which will enable Zambia to continue its debt restructuring process. 

Nevertheless, China will likely need to maintain positive relations with African countries in order to sustain the possibility for economic and diplomatic engagement across the continent. This maintenance could take the form of financially transparent, Chinese-led infrastructure projects in Africa aimed at reducing potential friction between the PRC and African countries. China may also seek to shore up relations across the continent by brokering and ensuring maintained peace in regions fraught by tensions such as northern Ethiopia. 

Implications for the U.S.

1. U.S. Policy Implications

China’s continued engagement in Africa signals Beijing’s general intent to reshape the global balance of power, from a geopolitical as well as from a technological standpoint. U.S. policymakers could seek to increase American engagement with African countries, especially those where China is prominently engaged, through partnerships based around mutually beneficial areas including defense, critical mineral resources, and cultural exchange. The U.S. could also seek to engage more deeply with the African Union on issues such as global health and agriculture. 

2. U.S. Business Implications

U.S. companies could consider increasing investments across the continent and partnering with African entrepreneurs to launch new businesses or business segments that specifically address the African market. U.S. companies could seek equity or financial returns in exchange for increased volume and potentially favorable cost margins in Africa. 

3. U.S. Consumer Implications

For U.S. consumers, China’s continued engagement in Africa signals Beijing’s intent to broaden its international sphere of influence. American consumers may consider being more judicious in deciding who to shop with and buy from. As China’s reach continues to expand globally, American consumers may need to favor U.S. or Western suppliers to avoid contributing significantly to China’s economic growth.